Betting on the Nobel

Well, now that we can stop betting on who will win the Booker, let's switch gears and guess at who will win the Nobel Prize.
The Guardian's Culture Vulture has a record of getting things wrong, but CV has picked recent __ winner, Haruki Murakami as its favorite. Other contenders: Orhan Pamuk, Adonis (Syrian poet), Joyce Carol Oats, even Bob Dylan. At least the Booker narrowed it down to six, but it's kind of fun to have such an open field. I find it interesting that people actually bet on this kind of thing.
Is it better to bet on literature than sports matches? I like the idea of people debating these odds ("Ooh, Kundera's got 20/1 odds and Umberto Eco's at 50/1 - that's on par with Dylan!") but perhaps that's simply because I can appreciate the interest in books more than football games or some such.